Szechuan Sauce Recipe: Game 1 Value Meals
Every title team has a secret sauce. Derrick White and the Celtics. Jalen Williams and the Thunder. Szechuan Sauce and McDonald's. On their own, they're good, maybe not great. But that one special time of the year, they become the X-factor that unlocks something truly special.
These are the guys who go from obscurity and journeymen to franchise staples over the course of 4 rounds.
Finding these guys in April is hard. Finding them after Game 1 is impossible.
But where's the fun in talking sports if you don't get to occasionally make wild claims and spicy takes? Sure, I'm a mild spice kind of guy most days. Mild-plus even. But every now and then, you need a mind-numbing, taste-bud-brutalizing, sweat-your-face-out blazing tikka-masala take.
Here's mine.
I've talked a lot about PRA/Cap% in the past. It has its flaws, of course. It skews to offensive numbers and neglects defense. It doesn't work well for multi-era contracts and emerging CBAs. But it also helps find emerging stars on cheap deals playing elite basketball.
But the playoffs are their own beast. Stars' usage rates skyrocket. Rotation guys' minutes can get funky. Lights are brighter, expectations are higher, and the weight of a franchise is in full force on the backs of the best players in the league. So with a better product — the playoffs over the regular season — we need a better stat.
For the postseason, I'm shifting to use Minutes-Adjusted Value, or MAV.
The minutes side here is important. Extremely important. In playoff basketball, regardless of what some of these first games may have told you, the longevity of a talent on the floor matters. Playoff value isn't just per-possession efficiency anymore. It's showing up, staying on the floor, and producing so that a coach can't afford to sit you. 38 minutes at a 4.0 MAV is more valuable in May than a similar PRA on 20 minutes.
Baseline MAV Scores
So let's set some baselines. A new stat is only good if it's grounded in reality. And what better group to look to for guidance here than our MVP finalists? During the regular season, Nikola Jokić sat at a 1.39 MAV. SGA held a 1.60. Victor Wembanyama — keep in mind, he's on a rookie-scale contract still, pulling an MVP-caliber season on a $14M cap hit — posted a 3.73.
Our Rookie of the Year candidates were similarly in the 3.5-ish zone, with Cooper Flagg posting 3.37, Kon Knueppel posting 3.66, and VJ Edgecombe at 3.48.
So, baseline: 1.5 is good. 3.5 is great. North of that is exceptional.
Small Sample Warning
Now, every number below is a Game 1 figure for the postseason. They're small sample sizes. But that's the point here. We're looking for blazing-hot-extra-spicy Game 1 takes about who's ready to play a bigger role than they've been cast in.
The Headliner
No surprise here. I'm gonna talk about him (again) because what he's done all year was crazy, and the early signs point to him continuing to do it in the postseason. Deni Avdija is the only player after Game 1 with an MAV of 5 or better (it's 5.24) and a PRA north of 40 (it's 45).
His Trail Blazers have run into the alien invasion of Wemby and the Spurs, so unfortunately, I'm not too sure how deep Portland will get into the 80s of games played, but he's been sensational.
He posted a team-best and game second-high 30 points, a game-best 10 rebounds (yes, he out-rebounded Wemby), and played all but 3 minutes of the 13-point loss. Portland has some other emerging pieces that could help push a Game 5 or 6, like Scoot Henderson, who posted a 24 PRA with 18 points, but outside of Toumani Camara's 6.98 MAV on 11 PRA, Deni appears to be the only player getting it done in both stat categories in Portland.
Jalen Williams
JDub found his way into X-factor mode last postseason in a dominant run for the Thunder. His name being here should shock exactly nobody. But this season, Jalen played just 33 games and posted just over a 25 PRA through his 28.4 minutes a night. Can Jalen deliver in April, let alone May and June, was a real question. But if Game 1 is any indication, the answer is an emphatic yes. Keep an eye out as he and the Thunder chase a back-to-back domination of the league.
The Laker Vets
Deandre Ayton
Luke Kennard
Marcus Smart
This one feels good. It feels good for a lot of reasons. First, the Lakers limped into the playoffs with Reaves and Luka out and got matched up against the physically gigantic Houston Rockets. This was going to be a real test for a depleted team.
However, in Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard, and Marcus Smart, the LA veteran trio looked every ounce like legitimate title contention pieces in Game 1 (Ayton: 5.98 MAV, 32 PRA with a 19-point, 11-rebound double-double; Kennard: 5.05 MAV, 34 PRA including a game-high 27 points; and Smart: 7.15 MAV, 25 PRA with 3 stocks). As Luka and Austin find their way back to the floor, this Laker team will change dramatically over the next 2 weeks, but with vet support like this from Ayton, Kennard, and Smart, keep an eye out for a fairy-tale run from the Lakers.
Amen Thompson
Houston has thrived in defense-into-transition chaos. It's something that makes sense when your complete starting lineup is 6'7" or taller. But one of the big flaws in all-giants basketball is few ball handlers.
Amen has more than answered that call for the Rockets, delivering maybe the most complete 43-minute performance in any Game 1.
His 31 PRA mixed with a whopping 3 steals and a block (4 stocks, 1 shy of leading all players remaining in the postseason for Game 1) has series-altering potential. Thompson, much like Ayton, may have benefited from increased usage as Durant was missing in Game 1, and you can bet that Games 5 and 6 of this series will have a lot more firepower than they did this weekend, but any Rockets success come May will almost assuredly be the result of a complete 36+ minutes from Amen each night.
The Flash in the Pan
This is The UnOfficial. We love data-driven success stories almost as much as we love $16 Bud Lights and nose-bleed seats at the TD Garden. And we wouldn't be doing our UnOfficial duty if we didn't also give a nod to Jamal Shead, the clear leader in MAV in Game 1 at 11.97.
And this is so much more than just "good" numbers on "decent" minutes. Jamal's sky-high MAV is only made even more impressive when you note his 5/6 shooting from 3 on the way to 17 points.
Now, this is a flash fire. It was a career night for Jamal. His season averages give the impression that this may have been an out-of-body shooting experience for the 23-year-old Raptor.
But I hope not. I hope he continues to shoot the laces off the basketball. I hope his MAV stays sky-high and he showcases he's worth a lot more than his current $1.96M contract would indicate. I hope, much like former Raptor Fred VanVleet, this is a chance for Jamal to showcase his talents while the collective basketball world is watching.
For now, I'll temper my own expectations and celebrate a career night in his postseason debut.
Moving Forward
MAV is a stat that should stabilize over a series the way shooting percentage does. By Game 4, we'll have some clarity as to whether this is a stat worth watching. We'll know if we're seeing budding secret sauce candidates or if we're simply awe-struck from Game 1 mirages.
Deni has the regular-season résumé to back up the playoff flash. JDub has the 2024 postseason support. Ayton and Amen appear to be the ones with the most to prove.
We'll come back to this with a Round 1 audit after the dust settles. But until then, these are the names who make me so excited for postseason basketball. The talents that simply cannot be ignored. Names that may suddenly become a lot more popular, a lot more valuable, and a lot more exciting come June.
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