Jalen Johnson's Absurd Value

The Value Math

Let's normalize this. Comparing raw output to raw salary tells part of the story, but to really measure value, we need to account for the salary cap itself. The cap has ballooned from $112 million in 2021-22 to $154.6 million this season. Ultimately, a dollar now is worth about 27% less in terms of salary cap than it was five years ago.

The way we'll look at this is a player's PRA over the percentage of the total cap space they occupy. I'll reference this as "PRA/CAP%". Dončić and Jokić are extremely close here, both at about 1.5. Jalen Johnson is at 11.5.

By this metric, Johnson produces more per 1% cap than Kevin Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, and Anthony Edwards combined.

And there is something even scarier happening here. All but eight All-Stars are below 1.5. Only five crack 2.0. Those five? Johnson, Şengün, Duren, Holmgren, and Wembanyama. All under 23. All on rookie deals. All staples of this Value Menu.

The Value Menu

To state the obvious, rookie-deal guys are cheap and can be extremely productive. That's the way these deals always go. It's the reason we talk so much about guys earning their super-max in their opening three or four seasons. It isn't new. But this explosion of value? This is new.

We looked back at the last five All-Star rosters to get a sense for historical PRA/CAP%. In the entirety of those five years, over 125 All-Star seasons, there are 4 instances of PRA/CAP% in double digits. Two of them happened this year. One guy has done it twice.

In this Mc-Şengün-with-cheese of value, Alperen owns the top and fourth spot. Johnson is second. Maxey's breakout year, which earned him a max deal the following summer, is third. Of 125 seasons of basketball, this is the entire list.

But to refocus on our main meal — Jalen Johnson — we can go even a step further. In the last five seasons, there have been 23 rookie contracts owned by 18 individual players who have made an All-Star roster. Of the 22 seasons that don't belong to Jalen Johnson, only one has a better PRA. Luka Dončić. Johnson is in rare air. He's chasing the elite of the elite.

But value on paper only matters if it translates to winning. Just ask Detroit.

The Value Impact

The Detroit Pistons have seemingly figured out this value formula to find a new gear. They are the proof that his value is the real deal. Four seasons ago, Detroit was the worst team in basketball. I know, we beat up on them a lot. But they have been value shopping. And they have found something special.

Cade Cunningham was the second-highest PRA/CAP% among last season's All-Stars. Jalen Duren is third this season. While Cade has since secured his bag, dropping to 1.4 PRA/CAP%, they still have secured 2 of the top ten value players in the last five All-Star breaks: Jalen Duren — eighth, and Cade Cunningham — tenth.

Their surplus in value to cost has meant that, alongside these budding superstars, the Pistons have had cash to build an excellent supporting cast. They've been able to add or maintain big contracts for big talents, like Tobias Harris, Dennis Schröder, Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley, Duncan Robinson, and Caris LeVert.

So is it really any wonder why this is the best team in the East? That, as of this writing, they're NBA.com's number-one team in the power rankings? That their coach, J.B. Bickerstaff, was running the All-Star Game?

I'll remind everyone: these guys were a questionable no-call away from sending the Knicks home in the second round of the playoffs last year and facing off against the Pacers for the Eastern title. A Pacers team that, ironically, was anchored by Tyrese Haliburton, the sixth- and seventh-best PRA/CAP% player of the last five All-Star breaks.

These are the highest-return players in the NBA. They are the engine behind every serious contender's cap sheet. They are what gets the most out of a team's budget. They are the undeniable JBCB, McDouble, or Loaded Burrito. And Jalen Johnson might just be this season's best item on the All-Star value menu.